Trump 2.0's Wild Cards: AI and Crypto Economics

What a second Trump administration's AI and crypto policy agenda would mean for deregulation, digital assets, the FDIC, and the global competitiveness of American technology.

Should Donald Trump manage to triumph again in the 2024 election, returning to the helm of American power, and as we are seeing so far, those expecting a retread of his bombastic first term may find themselves in slightly uncharted territory. Rather than simply reprising the reality show theatrics around vulgarity, controversy and sensitivity-be-damned straight talk that proved oddly endearing to his base, a second act Trump term may see certain policy arenas viewed today as rather milquetoast reveal themselves as surprisingly substantial and telling. Namely, his administration’s posture toward emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, and whether stewarding their continued development ultimately turns past performance art into actual leadership.

Certainly, the familiar Trump agenda items that consumed much oxygen during the first presidential run will reappear as encores—flashy tax cuts (that don’t pay for themselves), fresh trade war saber-rattling (be ready to hear more about Tariffs), and doubled-down on drilling & energy independence / export. Supporters and critics alike can expect more of the same script that fuels Trump’s uneven political strengths while inflaming the cultural divides his detractors decry as tearing at the fabric of American unity. Hence for Trump part two, the underappreciated chances he takes sculpting smarter guardrails around innovational forces like AI and crypto—modern innovations promising (and delivering!)  both economic boons and societal disruption—may ultimately determine the overall reception of his leadership as polarizing or prophetic.

But separate from the trifecta of taxes, trade and drilling, the most intriguing Trump pivot could emerge on two lesser discussed but exponentially impactful frontiers – artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies. Though lacking traditional visibility in a legacy policy portfolio, both domains showcase pillars of future global economic power and prosperity. As AI infiltrates nearly all industries and crypto capacities remake finance, Trump’s second-term choices sculpting their rise carry significance dwarfing other economic tinkering. In both cases, the current President’s “risk first and only” regulatory view of both sees possibly its greatest difference to an innovation and American-leadership focused agenda that could, beyond anything else covered here, radically alter the rest of the 21^st century.

On AI and associated machine learning algorithms, Trump possesses no innate affinity or historical fluency to guide these advances either more broadly or in terms of specific applications. But he shows latent savviness by generally abstaining from arbitrarily neutering innovators through premature regulation and framing these technologies first, and only, as risks, letting capital flow and breakthroughs emerge organically. Compared to less economically proficient regions rushing pell-mell standards more bureaucratic than practical, America enjoyed competitive advantage from Trump’s light governance touch so far allowing startups latitude proving concepts and securing public trust. This is in stark contrast to the Biden administration where they are focused on a ‘No, but we’ll let you in at some point once we’re out of office’ strategy.

Cryptocurrencies and their blockchain technologies inspire similar internal conflicts for team Trump, balancing openness towards financial system modernization against reflexive distrust of threatening change. There is an inherent conflict between Trump’s views on political and economic centrality and the fundamental decentralized philosophies in crypto.  Regulators across agencies like the Fed, FDIC, Treasury, SEC and CFTC guided under his watch fluently spoke crypto vernacular. Their proactive engagements to date crystallized a coherent posture acknowledging vast promise met equally by risks. Hence thoughtful policy evolution outpaces most nations. A Trump 2.0 administration with an expanded remit (especially with control of both houses of Congress which also appears to be ‘as given’ if he were to win again), staffing of agencies with expertise (most of which left during the first 2 years of the Biden admin) and clear policy goals would immediately lead to positive economic & political outputs.

But further opportunities emerge for more collaborating across government, academia and industry at this crossroads. Strategic choices in the next two years could determine whether revolutionary phases flourishing elsewhere eventually mature abroad then get imported back secondhand to America, ceding competitiveness—or whether confident public-private partnerships cement domestic innovation leadership underlying much of this century’s web3 transformation. The infrastructure to greatly expand public-private partnerships is already in place and more direct support from a Trump 2.0 would equally show immediate returns.

What might presidential leadership pursuing the latter look like? First, funding research and specialized education programs for AI & digital asset literacy, particularly in financially underserved communities allows traditionally excluded demographics accessing epochal opportunity. Second, encouraging upgrading legacy technologies in regulated areas to enable frictionless adoption makes intuitive sense and would extend American global leadership; doing so reinforces broader trust and equally important soft diplomacy gains. Third, establish clear regulatory guardrails that allow for restrictions in use and entry points for innovation for emerging technologies. Other targeted policy tweaks and streamlined rulemaking promise profoundly positive spillovers. See earlier comments I’ve made about the potential impact of the Supreme Court throwing out the doctrine - This change alone would radically alter the regulatory landscape.

Of course, critics will rightly warn against overreach or distortion from policy overcorrecting too crudely to bolster hypothetical projections. Change itself challenges many even where evidence shows net progress. And Trump himself owns no record showing savvy restraint whenever tantalized by a chance reshaping history exclusively by his moxie. Both technological frontiers highlighted here demand heightened emotional intelligence and disciplined collaboration beyond typical strongman tendencies. Of course, critics will rightly warn against overreach or distortion from policy overcorrecting too crudely to bolster hypothetical projections. Change itself challenges many even where evidence shows net progress. And Trump himself owns no record showing savvy restraint whenever tantalized by a chance reshaping history exclusively by his moxie. Both technological frontiers highlighted here demand heightened emotional intelligence and disciplined collaboration beyond typical strongman tendencies.

Yet the opportunity still blinks enticingly before his taking. The former (and potentially future) president owns this climate and these tools for canonizing a surprisingly enlightened economic legacy should he see wisdom in astutely shepherding seismic shifts already underway. Defying expectations of him for short-term self-service by wisely unleashing innovations destined to improve countless livelihoods would surprise his antagonists and reward open-minded supporters. And much as the brash billionaire reality star crafted an iconoclast political image seemingly hastening needed disruption of ossified systems, he may choose harnessing profound technological transformations for society’s betterment as an unlikely final act. Heroes emerge often where least expected, and perhaps a Trump 2.0 would lead to the most innovative technology lead expansion of American economic and political power since the end of the second World War. Time will tell.